The History Making/Breaking 4.25 Sigma Ocean Restoration Experiment That Brought Back The Fish

Bringing Back The Fish

In 2013, 2015, and 2017 Alaska experienced Pink Salmon returns so extraordinary that they defied all odds.
Our Native and Government Public Private Partnership project made it happen on purpose!

We are out to do it again.

2015: 190 million fish returned—an event 4.25 sigma above the norm.

In highbrow scientific terms, a 4.25 sigma result carries a greater than 99.997% confidence level. That makes it one of the most statistically significant ecological outcomes ever recorded in nature. Such events are rare in physics, and virtually unheard of in fisheries science.

This surge wasn’t random—it followed the 2012 Haida Salmon Restoration experiment, when a depleted Pink Salmon ocean pasture in the Gulf of Alaska off the islands of Haida Gwaii was replenished and restored using nature-based methods to sprinkle a small amount of vital iron-rich mineral dust to restore plankton productivity.

What followed over three return cycles of the North Pacific Pink Salmon—2013, 2015, and 2017—is the strongest real-world proof yet that we can repair the ocean and bring back life at extraordinary scale.  For comparison examination of all other ocean/salmon events in the same region produced at most a low 1.05 Sigma, statistically meaning nothing out of the ordinary!


📈 The 3-Year Results

Year Total Pink Salmon Return Sigma (Z-score) Significance
2013 224 million 2.66 σ First strong signal
2015 190 million 4.25 σ Historic
2017 145 million 2.35 σ Sustained signal

Average Sigma (2013, 2015, 2017): 3.09 σ

This corresponds to a 99.9% confidence level—a powerful confirmation that the 2012 restoration had an outstanding and reproducible impact.


🧪 What Is Sigma—and Why Does It Matter?

In science, sigma (σ) measures how far an outcome deviates from the expected average. It’s the gold standard for determining whether something truly extraordinary has occurred.

  • 1 sigma = Common, normal variation nothing to crow about
  • 2 sigma = Statistically significant (~95% confidence)
  • 3 sigma = Rare, compelling evidence (~99.7% confidence)
  • 4 sigma = Revolutionary territory
  • 5 sigma = Monumental discovery seen in experimental physics

⚛️ In Physics:

To claim discovery (like the Higgs boson), physicists demand a 5 sigma threshold. That equates to a 1 in 3.5 million chance the result is random.

🌎 In Nature:

In complex ecosystems like oceans, where climate, currents, and biology collide, 2.5 sigma events are extremely rare. A 4.25 sigma result, like our 2015 Pink Salmon return, is not just statistically powerful—it’s so historic it’s never been seen before!


🌱 A Repaired Ocean Pasture

The 2012 ocean pasture restoration triggered a bloom of plankton life that fed the entire food web:

  • More phytoplankton → more zooplankton → more salmon food
  • Juvenile salmon grew faster, survived better, and returned in higher numbers

This wasn’t due to hatchery practices. Hatchery releases were stable. River systems unchanged. Gulf of Alaska ocean conditions were normal. The only thing unusual was me and my village shipmates out to bring back the fish to the Native people who call themselves “People of the Salmon.”

And it wasn’t just the Pink Salmon that were treated to a feast to ward off their starvation, all of ocean life was nurtured, the seabirds, other species of fish, the whales…

The difference was in the ocean.


🌐 A Blueprint for Planetary Restoration

This 3-year natural experiment proves that:

  • Ocean pastures can be restored using nature’s own tools
  • Wild fish populations can recover dramatically
  • Phytoplankton blooms help draw down atmospheric CO₂

This is more than fisheries science—it’s a global climate and ecological restoration breakthrough.


📣 A Call to Action

A 4.25 sigma return is nature’s way of standing on a rooftop and shouting: “This works!”

The Haida Salmon Restoration project wasn’t just an experiment. It was a success story.
A signal.
A starting point.

We now have proof that with a little help, the ocean can recover—fast, and on a planetary scale.

Alaska’s Fishery Must Be Declared A National Emergency

Declare A National Emergency

Public Appeal to Save Alaska’s Ocean Pastures and Restore America’s Seafood Future

Fellow Alaskans  and Americans,

Our nation faces a silent crisis on its last frontier—one that threatens not only the health of our oceans but also the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Americans and the future of our seafood industry. The oceans of Alaska, which produce more than 60% of the nation’s seafood, are in dire straits. The collapse of its ocean pastures—the foundation of the marine food web—has led to a devastating decline in marine life and fisheries catch.

NOAA Fisheries Crisis report 2024Last fall NOAA reported another, repeating, annual $1.8 billion loss in the Alaska catch, which NOAA conservatively translates into a staggering $4.3 billion blow to the U.S. seafood economy. They add that the crisis has also cost the nation 38,000 jobs. Together these are a clear warning sign of deeper industry, economic, and ecological collapse.

The root cause? It’s not a subject of debate!

It is the collapse of primary ocean productivity. Plankton, the microscopic plants that form the base of the marine food chain, are vanishing. These ocean pastures are the lifeblood of Alaska’s fisheries, and America’s fisheries, supporting everything from salmon to crab to the iconic Alaskan pollock. Without healthy ocean plankton pastures, there can be no healthy fish and marine life populations—and without fish and marine life, there can be no seafood industry.

This collapse of the ocean plankton pastures has been the subject of 50 years of ocean science research and the result of that research is that we have proven we have the means to immediately replenish and restore those pastures and their fish to historic levels of health and abundance.

This Crisis Extends Beyond Alaska

While Alaska’s ocean emergency is the most urgent, it is not an isolated problem. Across the United States, our oceans have been and are suffering from similar collapses in productivity, with devastating consequences for fisheries, coastal communities, and our national economy.

  • Atlantic Coast: Twenty-five years ago, the collapse of ocean pastures led to the decline of Atlantic Salmon, pushing this iconic species onto the endangered species list. Once a thriving commercial fishery, the Atlantic Salmon diminised, starving at sea on degraded ocean pastures, leaving New England’s fishing communities struggling and its ecosystems in chaos.
  • Pacific Coast: Los Angeles, whose flag proudly features a tuna fish, lost its massive tuna fishing industry in the 1950s due to the collapse of ocean pastures. The disappearance of this vital ocean ecosystems not only ended an era of prosperity, this also served as an early warning sign of the broader crisis we face today.

These examples underscore a troubling truth: the collapse of ocean pastures is a nationwide emergency. What is happening in Alaska today will soon become the reality for other regions if we continue to fail to act. The time to restore America’s oceans is now.

Despite the alarming evidence of economic and ecological collapse, no government agency has deigned to take decisive action to restore these vital ocean pastures. The time for academic fisheries, “fiddling while Rome burns”, merely observing, silence, and inaction, is over. We are out of time and need bold leadership and immediate emergency intervention to reverse this crisis.

What Must Be Done:

  1. Declare a National Emergency: The collapse of Alaska’s ocean pastures is not just an Alaskan problem—it is an American crisis. We call on the President and federal leaders to declare a national ocean and fisheries emergency and to immediately mobilize resources and proven methods to mitigate this catastrophe. We call on the people of Alaska to demand this action now!
  2. Revise Federal Priorities to Address the Crisis: In other emergencies, such as oil spills, hurricanes, or massive forest fires, the federal government immediately revises priorities across multiple agencies to muster teams and resources to mitigate the damage. This is standard practice—and it’s exactly what’s needed now. NOAA’s Alaska vessel fleet and laboratories must be redirected to begin ocean restoration efforts immediately. These resources, already in place, can be deployed to restore the natural mineral dust that plankton need to thrive, jumpstarting the recovery of Alaska’s ocean pastures.
  3. Support Proven Solutions: OPR Alaska, a company dedicated to ocean restoration, has spent years developing and advocating for methods to restore ocean productivity. Our work has shown that replenishing vital minerals can revive plankton pastures and, in turn, restore fish populations. This is not theoretical—it is proven science. Federal action to deploy this work now is critical.
  4. Protect Jobs and Communities: The collapse of Alaska’s fisheries is not just an environmental issue—it is an economic and social crisis. By restoring ocean pastures, we can  restore and save jobs, protect coastal communities, and ensure that America’s seafood industry remains a global leader. The expected results of this emergency action are clear: the immediate return of more than 38,000 seafood industry jobs and the restoration of more than $4 billion in economic prosperity to America.

Why This Matters:

For Our Economy: The seafood industry is a cornerstone of America’s economy, providing jobs, feeding families, and supporting countless businesses. Alaska’s fisheries alone contribute billions of dollars annually. Without action, the real time catastrophic losses will only grow.

For Our Food Security: Seafood is a vital source of protein for millions of Americans. The collapse of Alaska’s fisheries threatens our nation’s food security and could lead to higher prices and shortages.

For Our Environment: Healthy oceans are essential to the health of our planet. Restoring ocean pastures will not only revive fish populations but also help combat climate change by increasing the ocean’s ability to repurpose carbon dioxide into fish!

We Cannot Wait:

The collapse of Alaska’s ocean pastures is a crisis that demands immediate action. Just as the federal government responds swiftly to oil spills and forest fires, hurricanes it must now act with urgency to address this ocean and fisheries emergency. We call on every American to join us in urging our leaders to take decisive steps to restore these vital ecosystems.

Contact your representatives, share this message, and demand that the federal government prioritize ocean restoration. Together, we can save Alaska’s oceans, protect our seafood industry, and secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

The time to act is now. Our oceans, our jobs, and our future depend on it.

If you are inclned to action

You  may reserved seats on our ships voyage of recovery. Sign aboard, lend a hand and bend your back and it’ll be as if you have dipped yourself in magic waters.

The one constant through all the years, has been the ocean.

Throughout the ages the land has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again.

But the ocean has marked the time.

It’s a part of our past and our future and reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again. It’s time to for us to take action and make it that way.

#SaveAlaskasOceans #RestoreOurFisheries #OceanRestorationNow

Kodiak KMXT Radio Report On Ocean Restoration

Reviving Alaska’s Ocean Pastures: A Bold Step Toward Marine Restoration

Ocean Pasture Restoration (OPR) Alaska is spearheading a pioneering initiative aimed at rejuvenating marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska. Set to commence in 2025, this three-year pilot project focuses on enhancing phytoplankton production—the foundational element of oceanic food webs.

The strategy involves the careful introduction of iron-rich mineral dust into specific ocean regions. This method is designed to stimulate phytoplankton growth, thereby supporting the broader marine food chain. The concept draws inspiration from the work of oceanographer John Martin, who emphasized the critical role of iron in phytoplankton proliferation.

Rob Lindsey, a seasoned commercial fisherman from Kodiak, and Ted Crookston, a member of OPR’s Fisheries Advisory Board, are leading advocates for the project. They express concerns about the sustainability of commercial fishing, particularly for species like king salmon, if proactive measures aren’t taken. Their vision includes establishing Kodiak as the central hub for operations, potentially extending efforts down to the Canadian border and into the Bering Sea.

OPR Alaska has previously experimented with this approach, notably in 2012, observing anecdotal increases in salmon returns in subsequent years. However, the organization acknowledges the need for more comprehensive data and is seeking support from state legislators to ensure transparency and engagement.

For a detailed account of this initiative, refer to the original article by Davis Hovey on KMXThttps://www.kmxt.org/news/2024-12-02/alaska-organization-wants-to-renew-ocean-pastures-and-boost-production-of-phytoplankton 

Stay tuned to OPRAlaska.com for ongoing updates on this significant endeavor to restore Alaska’s ocean pastures and bolster marine life.

Kasatochi Volcanic Iron Paper 2013

kasatochi volcano ash fall

A great paper from Germany on Aleutian Volcano Kasatochi Iron Replenishment of Gulf of Alaska

Brings Back The Fish by replenishing vital mineral micro-nutrients to Gulf of Alaska ocean pastures.

Abstract: The Kasatochi volcanic eruption that occurred in the central Aleutian Islands in Alaska, USA, in August 2008 is thought to have induced a massive diatom bloom in the iron-limited waters of the Gulf of Alaska, which potentially affected the oceanic food web by increasing the abundance of zooplankton and sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the northeast Pacific Ocean.

Our study suggests that the amount of iron released from Kasatochi ash (an increase of 2.0 to 2.8 nM Fe) was indeed sufficient to cause the observed phytoplankton bloom in the northeastern Pacific Gyre, while the impact of macronutrient release was minimal. We further evaluated the multiple, interdependent processes in the oceanic food web related to the diatom bloom, involving the ocean survival of juvenile salmon that entered the northeast Pacific Ocean in the summer of 2008.

Read the paper via the link below.

Kasatochi_iron_paper_Germany2013